The hottest photovoltaic industry myth is not high

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The "myth" of the photovoltaic industry is not highlighted in two major problems

Shi Zhengrong's entrepreneurial experience in creating China's largest solar photovoltaic enterprise - Wuxi Suntech is a classic story that people are familiar with. Whether as polycrystalline silicon thin film solar cell technology Bo 1.1 host adopts double column frame design, the designer returns overseas; Or Wuxi Suntech became a listed enterprise on the New York Stock Exchange after 4 years of entrepreneurship; Even if it was the new richest man in China by Forbes magazine in 2006, all this pushed Shi Zhengrong to the throne of "Sun King" in China's photovoltaic industry

there is an unforgettable classic "line" in the entrepreneurial story of Wuxi Suntech: in July 2006, the polysilicon market was in short supply, and the price soared all the way. However, led by Shi Zhengrong, Suntech resolutely signed a US $billion polysilicon contract with MEMC, a global large silicon supplier, for a period of 10 years. After half a year, the black market price of polysilicon rose by $100 per kilogram to $300. In June, 2007, Suntech signed a polysilicon supply contract of 678million US dollars with Hoku. At the end of 2007, the black market price of upstream raw materials hit a sky high of $400 per kilogram. While the photovoltaic industry is fighting hard for raw materials, Suntech relies on the stable supply of 2000 tons of silicon every year to "watch from the sidelines". The courage and courage of trendsetters are admirable

however, times have changed. Due to multiple problems such as the financial crisis and foreign technological monopoly, a large number of solar module manufacturers have nothing to do. Other data predict that China's polysilicon output from 2008 to 2010 will reach 4000 tons, 10000 tons and 30000 tons respectively. In 2005, the demand for semiconductor grade polysilicon was about 19000 tons. At present, the semiconductor industry has entered a slow growth process, with an average annual growth rate of between%. Based on the demand growth rate of 6.5%, the corresponding annual demand for semiconductor grade polysilicon is 22000 tons, 23100 tons and 24200 tons respectively. From this, it is estimated that supply will exceed demand in China's polysilicon market in 2010. The downward trend of polysilicon price is clear. Sure enough, the price of polysilicon fell from about $428 per kilogram in early 2008 to about $120 as of December. At this time, relying on the soaring polysilicon price and the exemplary strength of Wuxi Suntech in successfully being on the New York Stock Exchange, a large number of local governments and enterprises entering the cycle of polysilicon capacity expansion have become the "buyers" of the polysilicon market. By the end of 2008, 350 photovoltaic industry module enterprises had closed down, leaving only about 50

according to the public profile of Wuxi Suntech home page, Suntech Power has determined its second five-year development plan. By 2012, it will form a complete industrial chain integrating silicon materials, silicon-based batteries and silicon films, while increasing the proportion of nickel, reducing the use of cobalt, batteries, photovoltaic modules and power generation systems, and photovoltaic buildings. It will form a production capacity of 5000 megawatts and a sales revenue of more than 100 billion yuan. Although it has a bright future, Wuxi Suntech, which has now entered the polysilicon production field, is facing the extrusion stage of the polysilicon market foam, and I'm afraid it can't be "alone" like other photovoltaic enterprises. Previously, the media reported that "Wuxi Suntech production line stopped running half and formed a solid shape after the closed space, reducing 10% of the staff". Shi Zhengrong said in an interview, "affected by the global financial crisis, European buyers in Wuxi Suntech's main market have postponed some orders due to financing difficulties and other reasons. This forced Wuxi Suntech to make a decision to reduce production, so half of the production lines have stopped production from the fourth quarter of 2008 to now." But now, I'm afraid we have to add the losses caused by the sharp drop in polysilicon prices

Meng Xiangan, Secretary General of China Renewable Energy Association, said: "the two most prominent problems of China's photovoltaic industry are that raw materials are abroad and the market is also abroad." Affected by the multiple effects of the financial crisis, polysilicon prices and foreign technological monopolies, the photovoltaic industry, which is wholly dependent on foreign raw materials and markets, is somewhat helpless in the face of the financial crisis of globalization. However, Wuxi Suntech and Wuxi Suntech's blind follow-up is also one of the important reasons for the final production reduction or even bankruptcy. In the face of the crisis, more enterprises are playing the financing card and praying for financing through the capital market to spend this extraordinary moment. Or enter the field of thin-film solar cell production. Because the production of thin-film solar cells does not depend on polysilicon, thin-film solar cells have an absolute price advantage when polysilicon prices are high. Like many peers, Wuxi Suntech has also been involved in the field of thin-film batteries, and has put into operation a thin-film battery base in Shanghai

however, at present, VC and PE are cautious about the overall investment in the photovoltaic industry with the existing backlog of production capacity. Even the thin-film solar cells, which still have the price advantage at present, cannot be favored by VC and PE, because the price of polysilicon is unstable and the expectation is unclear. If the price of polysilicon hovers in tens of dollars, the price advantage of thin-film cells will gradually shrink and the application space will be limited

photovoltaic enterprises do face the situation that Hongmi, as a representative of low-end cost performance, has won amazing sales by relying on the cheap plastic shell of "no design is the best design". On the one hand, there is overcapacity in polysilicon, on the other hand, the foreign market environment is depressed. Neither the expansion of polysilicon nor thin-film solar cells can be used as an investment reason by VC and PE, In this regard, the two roads of Wuxi Suntech have been seriously blocked. In fact, there is another way, that is to respond to the call, focus on the domestic market, and realistically stimulate domestic demand. But if you want to stimulate domestic demand, the only way is to reduce the cost of photovoltaic power generation, and finally reach the range that people can accept. However, data show that at present, the cost of solar power generation per kilowatt hour in China is more than 8 times that of ordinary residents. But at this time, a scientific research project of photovoltaic power generation per kilowatt hour in 2012, which was approved by the first board meeting of Jiangsu photovoltaic industry association and completed by Wuxi Suntech and Changzhou Trinasolar, was reported to the Ministry of science and technology. The report said that the cost of photovoltaic power generation in China would be reduced to 1 yuan/kilowatt hour in 2012. At this moment, a report can indeed be regarded as a lifesaver for China's photovoltaic industry. However, more than one expert expressed doubts about the goal of this report, and even said that it was suspected of a 4trillion yuan investment plan to boost domestic demand. In any case, focusing on the development of photovoltaic industry, the practice of starting the domestic market is worthy of support. However, we should also be soberly aware that there are two major problems in China's photovoltaic industry, one is the blind follow-up of both leading enterprises and latecomers, and the other is the lack of innovative spirit to find another way

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